This is my public work: analysis written to the same standard as my commissioned research. I try to explain what is happening and why it matters — without performing certainty I don't have.
Taraz (تراز) is where my public analysis lives: monthly reports, forecasts and briefings on Iran's economy — with the sourcing and the method shown, not hidden. Registered forecasts and scenarios are dated and left on the record; when the evidence changes, the judgement changes, and that change is visible rather than quietly edited away.
Read Taraz →What is established, what is only reported, and what is my assessment — kept apart, and sourced. Confidence is stated in plain terms. Forecasts carry the conditions that would change them. It is the same standard I apply to paid research, applied in the open.
Iran's fuel supply, quota politics and the economics of a blockade — what shifts the shortage, and what only redistributes it.
How value and goods move around restrictions — read from the Persian-language and public record.
The economic impact of attacks on and failures in Iran's energy and infrastructure.
Individual reports and briefings are published through Taraz.
My public analysis and my commissioned research are kept separate. I don't write about a subject in public that I'm being paid to research privately, and I don't use confidential material in either direction.
Taraz publishes reports, forecasts and briefings on Iran's economy — with the method shown.
Read Taraz →